16-day Weather Chart
Graphical charts from which you can get clear and detailed information on the weather for the next 7 days and what is an orientation 16-day weather forecast.
The charts display the weather forecast directly for the locality of the ski resort Ski Park Ružomberok.
Click the chart to display zoomed view.
Instructions for use
1. Temperatures
The continuous line expresses the progress of temperature in the free atmosphere in the altitude of 1,000 m above sea level. Its value is calculated on the basis of the temperature gradient by the temperature extrapolated in the isobaric level of 850 hPa. That is why the temperature does not reflect radiation temperature drop effects of the Earth’s surface, due to given reason it may happen that the real temperature in the given altitude above the Earth’s surface may be lower in the initial hours of the temperature rise than it is displayed in the chart. The dashed line expresses the real progress of the air temperature in valley positions and in Ružomberok and it reflects radiation temperature drop and inversion type of weather. As standard dashed line is above the continuous one because the weather in mountains is colder than in valleys. However, with the inversion weather type dashed line is located under the continuous one, which means the weather is colder in valleys than in mountains that time.
2. Relative humidity
The line expresses relative air humidity in the altitude between 600 and 3,000 m above sea level. Basically it can be said that the closer the position of the line to the bottom of the chart is the higher the cloudiness will be at the given time and vice versa, when the line is closer to the upper line of the chart the possibility of nice sunny weather is higher. When the line is in the area below 30%, perfect visibility may be expected in the mountains. Anyway, it is necessary to remind this rule applies only for the mountain positions over 800 to 1,100 m. In lower positions and in case of inversion (which can be found out from the temperature lines) there is the risk of cloudy and foggy weather even if the line is close to the upper line of the chart.
3. Precipitation
It expresses the expected amount of precipitation, which falls in a given 6-hour interval. The straight line pictogram means rain, waive means snowing and dashed line means drizzling. Wave and straight line next to each other mean rain with snow. However, it has to be advised that the chart forecasts the precipitation character for the positions about 900 m above sea level. For lower valley positions it can be elicited that the rain will replace snow in case the dashed temperature line is located above the zero at that time. From the position of waves you can count how much snow will fall in a given period by counting individual millimetres per each 6-hour interval. The proportion applies that a millilitre of precipitation means about 1 cm of snow. When pictograms are located between two zeros it means that only a small and immeasurable amount of precipitation can fall. Anyway, the data given in this chart have to be taken with a grain of salt to significant extent. Forecasting of the amount of expected precipitation is the most difficult discipline in meteorology and according to the experience of the author the data generated by GFS computers are usually slightly exaggerated. On the other hand the opposite situations are not exceptional too, when with cold northerly airflow the author recorded more snowfalls than were forecasted in models.
4. Wind
It expresses intensity and direction of wind at a given time in the altitude 1,000 m above sea level. The speed of wind is adequate it does not express wind blasts, which may be twice as fast as the average speed. In case the wind is stronger than 35 km per hour the wind blasts may occur when cableways and ski-lifts are stopped due to safety reasons. If the facility is situated leeward the strong wind may not endanger their operation.
5. Pressure
It expresses air pressure counted according to sea level. The average pressure is 1,015 hPa, the chart above this value means we will be influenced by higher pressure and vice versa, if the value is lower, the weather is influenced by depression.
6. Forecast
It expresses expected progress of the real temperature in valleys and free atmosphere temperature in the altitude of 1,000 m above sea level within the horizon of 16 days. In the small box below the chart you can find pictograms expressing expected weather character. If there is no pictogram for the given day, it means cloudy weather without precipitation can be expected.
Attention
Individual charts are made by extrapolation of numeric models GFS (Global Forecast System). The probability of success is 99% for the day of release and from 99% to 90 % for the next three days. The probability of success for the next 4 to 7 days is between 90% and 70%, which means that 7 to 9 forecasts out of ten are successful. The rate of forecast success drops dramatically within the horizon of more than 7 days from 70% each day by about 10% to the last day of the forecast, when the success rate is only 10%, which means that only ca 1 forecast out of ten is successful that day. Because of this reason we recommend to monitor weather forecast on an ongoing basis and not to rely on one released scenario.
